Market Forecasting Training in Thimphu, Bhutan

This course is designed to introduce participants to the principles, tools, and techniques of market forecasting. It covers both qualitative and quantitative methods used to predict future market conditions, consumer behavior, and business trends. Participants will gain hands-on experience with forecasting models, data analysis, and interpretation essential for informed strategic planning and decision-making.

Course Agenda

Introduction to Market Forecasting

• Importance of forecasting in business strategy

• Forecasting vs. prediction

• Types of forecasts (short, medium, long-term)

Data Exploration and Preprocessing

• Collecting market data

• Data cleaning and transformations

• Seasonality, trends, and cycles

Qualitative Forecasting Methods

• Delphi method

• Market research and expert opinion

• Scenario planning

Quantitative Forecasting – Time Series Analysis

• Naïve and average models

• Moving average and weighted moving average

• Exponential smoothing methods

Regression and Causal Forecasting

• Linear regression modeling

• Multiple regression and predictors

• Interpreting coefficients and diagnostics

Advanced Techniques and Tools

• ARIMA models basics

• Introduction to Python/R for forecasting (optional)

• Combining models for better accuracy

Evaluating and Improving Forecast Accuracy

• Forecast error metrics (MAE, MSE, RMSE, MAPE)

• Cross-validation techniques

• Model refinement strategies

Hands-on Exercises

Case Studies